Succession planning has always been a tough nut to crack. Boards worry about it, HR professionals build elaborate processes around it, and executives wonder—often quietly—who will be ready when the time comes.

Unfortunately, the succession playbook that worked twenty years ago—or even five years ago—isn’t cutting it anymore. We’ve entered the exponential age. Advances in AI, robotics, biotech, blockchain, anda half-dozen other fields aren’t just tinkering around the edges of business.They’re flipping industries on their heads and, more importantly, rewriting what leadership expectations.

Traditional succession planning, designed for incremental change, was already shaky. Layer exponential disruption on top, and it’s a recipe for failure.

The State of Succession Today—And Why It’s Fragile

Before we even touch exponential change, let’s acknowledge the cracks already showing:

• CEO turnover is spiking. In 2024 alone, more than 2,000 CEOs stepped down—a 60% jump from just two years prior. Average tenure has dropped to just about four years. That’s not a long runway for impact.
• Failure rates are sobering. Roughly 60% of executives flame out within 18 months. Imagine investing years grooming someone, only to watch it unravel in less than two.
• Formal planning is sparse. Only about a third of organizations have structured succession plans for their critical roles. The rest? Flying blind.
• Leaders feel underprepared. Nearly three-quarters admit they don’t feel ready for the challenges ahead. Not exactly a confidence boost.

That’s the baseline. Add exponential change to the mix, and it becomes clear: the way most companies approach succession is deeply mismatched to the world we’re actually living in.

A Cautionary Tale: When Continuity Fails

Let me share a story of an actual company. I’ll call the company Dino Design. A 50-year-old manufacturing firm. Solid. Profitable. Proud of its heritage.

To their credit, they did more than most when it came to succession. They conducted talent reviews, completed nine-box grids, and even sent high potentials to Ivy League MBA programs. When their longtime CEO announced his retirement, the board picked a trusted insider—someone who had spent 25 years in the company, knew operations cold, and promised continuity.

Safe choice, right?

Except the market had other plans. A new competitor burst onto the scene, armed with AI-driven automation and robotics.They produced the same products at half the cost. Overnight, the rules of the industry changed.

Dino’s new CEO doubled down on efficiency, trimming costs and streamlining processes. But he was fighting yesterday’s battle. Within a year, the company lost talent, fell hopelessly behind on technology, and was eventually acquired.

The board thought they were choosing stability. What they really chose was stagnation. Their succession strategy was tuned to the past, not the future.

The Exponential Age Is Here—Not Someday, Now

If Dino’s story feels extreme, think again. The technologies reshaping their industry are not futuristic hypotheticals.They’re here, now.

• AI is no longer a novelty—it’s embedded in daily work. Hundreds of millions of people use large language models every week, rewriting how knowledge work gets done.
• Robotics is leaping from static machines on assembly lines to humanoid robots with dexterity, AI-enabled brains, and mobility. That’s not science fiction; it’s the next phase of service and manufacturing.
• Synthetic biology and biotech are making personalized medicine and advanced agriculture a reality.
• Quantum computing is already impacting drug discovery and encryption.
• Blockchain and decentralized tech are redefining transactions, contracts, and even ownership itself.

These shifts don’t respect five-year planning cycles. They show up mid-cycle and invalidate the assumptions baked into leadership profiles. A role defined today might be unrecognizable in just a few years.

Why Traditional Succession Models Don’t Hold

Succession planning has often relied on a tidy formula: Talent + Growth + Time = Readiness.

In exponential times, each variable shows strain under the pressure:

• Talent requirements are shifting too fast. That “perfect” leadership profile may be obsolete the moment the Board approves it.
• Growth opportunities lag reality. Stretch assignments in steady business units don’t expose leaders to the turbulence produced by disruption.
• Time is compressed. The old idea of grooming someone over five to seven years? Unrealistic. Change arrives faster than your pipeline can mature.

Here’s a blunt way to put it: the compass succession planners have used for decades—building neat profiles and refreshing them every three to five years—is broken. If you want to stay on course, you need to recalibrate every single year.

Rethinking Succession: Five Imperatives for the Exponential Age

So, what should leaders and HR professionals actually do? Let me walk you through five shifts that matter.

1. Rethink Success Profiles

Traditional profiles capture competencies, experiences, and skills that match today’s strategy. But tomorrow’s leaders need more. Add technology awareness, learning agility, and comfort with ambiguity to the list. Ask: can this person not only handle disruption but also be a catalyst for it?

And don’t wait three to five years to revisit these profiles. Do it annually, because the road forward is constantly changing.

2. Put Leaders in Real Disruption

Performance reviews and nine-box grids?Useful, but limited. They don’t tell you how someone will react when disruption knocks on the door.

Scenario-based simulations, assessment centers, and stretch assignments that replicate transformation challenges are far more predictive. They expose those who can think broadly, manage complexity, and keep their cool when the ground shifts.

3. Widen the Funnel

Too often, succession plans hinge on one or two “chosen” individuals. In a world of exponential change, that’s a gamble.

Cast a wider net. Assess more people—even multiple levels down. Give more leaders a shot at development experiences. It not only increases your odds of finding the right fit but also sends a cultural message:leadership potential isn’t reserved for the anointed few.

4. Redefine Development

Sending leaders to polished programs at elite schools feels impressive, but it’s often generic. Exponential change requires lived experience, not just classroom theory.

Put high potentials into technology-driven projects. Rotate them into business units in flux. Assign them to initiatives where AI or automation is front and center. Let them wrestle with disruption in real time. That’s how you prepare your next generation leaders to thrive in the exponential age.

5. Speed Up Transitions

Gone are the days when a new CEO or senior leader has 12 months to “find their footing.” In fast-changing situations, waiting that long is a luxury.

Create transition playbooks that set clear expectations: the pace of change, the early wins required, and the cultural adjustments that can’t be delayed. Boards and executives must align on urgency—otherwise, you risk burning through leaders before they even get started.

So, Where Does That Leave Us?

Succession planning has always been about preparing for the future. But the future isn’t sitting patiently on the horizon anymore. It’s knocking—sometimes pounding—on the door today!

The organizations that will thrive aren’t the ones that cling to tradition. They’re the ones that rebuild succession with agility at the center. That means refreshing leadership profiles every year, stress-testing leaders in disruptive scenarios, widening the funnel of potential successors, and speeding up how transitions are managed.

Because let’s be honest, continuity alone won’t cut it. The leaders who will carry your organization forward aren’t simply the steady hands who can maintain what’s already there. They’re the bold thinkers who can navigate—and even harness—the very disruptions that are reshaping industries.

So, here’s the final question: is your succession planning process ready to thrive in the exponential age, or is itstill clinging to continuity while the ground is shifting beneath you?

Sources:

CEO Exits Fall in November 2024; 167 CEO Exits Add to Highest Number of CEO Moves on Record | Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. | Outplacement & Career Transitioning Services

Succession Planning: Is Your Organization Prepared?

3 Transitions Even the Best Leaders Struggle With

‍